It's only a first step, and we shouldn't necessairly read too much into it, but Orange just published a coverage map for FTTH, which suggests that their commitment is starting to be more than verbal. The map is available here, you need to click on La Fibre on the right-hand side of the display to see fiber coverage.
According to this map, coverage in Colombes, where I live, is still limited but, assuming it's not a spillover from deployment in La Garenne Colombes, it could imply that I might be able to get FTTH in the not too distant future. In which case, I will most likely switch away from Free back to the incumbent.
And that's how NTT re-established its monopoly in Japan!